188 Debunked

The much publicised 188 day earthquake cycle so popular on You Tube, Doom web sites and Conspiracy forums is inaccurate at best. Leaving aside the fact that the geometry invoked really does not work too well for spherical objects rather than nice flat maps, let’s look at the figures.

First of all the theory states that major earthquakes happen every 188 days +/- 15 days which is a very large margin (more of that in a minute) and that this pattern holds good back to 1800 and beyond. This takes no account of the many that fall in between that period and I find the logic for omitting them less than compelling.

I don’t have the intention of going back that far but I will take the figures back to 1900 and see what I find.

I have placed the listing at the end of this post because it is long, containing 218 dates.

Basically this list has all the precise 188 period dates, allowing for leap years, using as suggested the pivot point of Chile 2010.

Whilst I cannot agree with such a massive margin of error as +/- 15 days I have gone with it and this equates to a +/- 7.97% margin. Those lines that are green are within the margin and those that are red are outside the margin. In order to determine the quake to use I simply selected that one which was closest to the 188 date irrespective of whether this was before or after the date.

Of the 218 “188” dates that fall between now and 1900 there are 66 that fall outside the very loose parameters so, even allowing for that large margin, there are still over 30% that do not fit. Purely as a matter of interest only allowing 5% either way (9.4 days) gives a failure rate of 42%.

At a reasonable +/- 3 days the failure rate becomes 72.47%.

The margin is impossibly large. If I said to you “If you walk under that bridge every 188 days a concrete block will fall off and hit you” you would actually have only been hit 7 times out of the 218 – a mere 3.21% chance of actually having anything happen on the 188 day event date.

On the other hand if you had taken the advice and avoided the specific date you could have been hit 145 times depending on how random your passage was! 🙂

The whole theory is illogical and unscientific and with that margin of error I do not believe that statistically a match can be claimed. That having been said the close correlation of the last few years might be considered intriguing, but there has been a slightly greater incidence of mag 7 earthquakes recently.

In my opinion, given the number of large quakes @ ~16 a year, and currently running at around ~20, this level of hits does NOT prove the theory.

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About PuterMan

A retired programmer.
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2 Responses to 188 Debunked

  1. Dioex says:

    Try 378.044 days and you will see the real deal 😉

  2. AJ Mora says:

    I agree and appreciate your analysis. I saw that the Sept 24th date was a huge miss (Unless you count the weak Baja Cal quake only 6.0) and the Figi to Mexico quake messed up the nice geometry theory. However one must agree that even your chart points out that never in any sequence have the numbers been so close to the the cycle margin. Since today is April 3, currently 3:24 PM PST it remains to be seen how far the unusual (coincidental Cycle) moves out of the 1-5 day miss. Interesting stuff. I saw the flawed math early on…

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