Major Earthquake Predicted for Philippines and Indonesia

International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center
P.O. Box 607147 – Orlando, Fl 32860
(407) 985-3509 – mail@ievpc.org

Major Earthquake Predicted
for Philippines and Indonesia
Monday, January 7, 2013 Press Release 01-01-07-13
9:00 AM
The IEVPC announces today its latest prediction for a major earthquake, centered between the Philippines and northern Indonesia in the Molucca Sea.

The quake is expected to produce a M8.0+ event with possible tsunami. The time frame for this quake to strike is from now until December 2014 and is detailed in the associated warning notice posted at the IEVPC web site (www.ievpc.org).

Analysis of the precursor signals from its proprietary system for quake detection has allowed the IEVPC to issue this important warning to the nations affected with substantial advance preparation time. This warning comes after the IEVPC has recently completed its highly successful test program during which it had correctly predicted three important earthquake events with a high degree of accuracy.

According to Director of Research, Dr. Dong Choi, “This new alert specifies the epicenter will be in the vicinity of the Talaud and Sangihe islands. All island nations in the region are however, under substantial risk since we have also forecast an associated tsunami. Many cities, towns, and villages in this area are located directly on the coastal areas throughout this region of steep-sided islands. Thus, people may be subjected to devastating waves hitting the shore lines if the predicted earthquake unfolds as we believe it might. Further, the area is already experiencing much increased volcanic activity and a major eruption cannot be ruled out, adding to the difficulties people in this area will experience.”

IEVPC CEO Mr. John L. Casey adds to this announcement with, “Now that we have demonstrated through our just concluded test program that major earthquakes can be predicted well in advance, we will be doing whatever we can to alert the nations in the threatened area so they can begin to prepare.”

CGE Warning Notice (CWN) CGE ID #: 001-01-07-13 Stage 3 announcement.

Location of predicted earthquake

M8Philippines
(Click the Image for a larger/clearer version)

The IEVPC web site

Historical quakes in a 300 km radius of this epicentre of Mag 6+

NEIC: Earthquake Search Results

U. S. G E O L O G I C A L S U R V E Y

E A R T H Q U A K E D A T A B A S E

FILE CREATED: Fri Jan 11 15:12:20 2013
Circle Search Earthquakes= 91
Circle Center Point Latitude: 4.435N Longitude: 126.437E
Radius: 300.000 km
Catalog Used: PDE
Magnitude Range: 6.0 – 10.0
Data Selection: Historical & Preliminary Data

Year,Month,Day,Time(hhmmss.mm)UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth,Catalog
1973,03,09,100637.70, 6.274, 127.336,6.0, 55,PDE
1973,03,16,005147 , 2.091, 126.643,6.3, 18,PDE
1973,03,18,110614.70, 2.033, 126.580,6.5, 33,PDE
1974,05,11,004344.90, 1.744, 126.381,6.2, 33,PDE
1975,07,10,182916 , 6.507, 126.642,7.0, 86,PDE
1975,10,26,104131.90, 6.578, 126.834,6.1, 50,PDE
1976,06,26,103059.40, 3.665, 126.750,6.5, 33,PDE
1977,01,19,135404.50, 5.036, 126.553,6.0, 50,PDE
1978,04,18,172730.60, 5.142, 127.410,6.0,128,PDE
1978,06,11,102205.10, 4.695, 126.613,6.1, 78,PDE
1979,02,07,210206.80, 5.210, 127.295,6.2,129,PDE
1979,02,11,222220.90, 5.987, 125.919,6.1,142,PDE
1979,04,10,014222 , 2.963, 126.933,7.2, 37,PDE
1979,11,19,221720.20, 5.861, 125.295,6.1, 85,PDE
1980,01,02,205844.20, 5.984, 126.188,6.9, 63,PDE
1980,02,29,111326.70, 6.299, 126.881,6.1,104,PDE
1981,03,26,213004.70, 3.412, 127.998,6.1, 61,PDE
1981,05,13,013954.80, 5.829, 127.008,6.0,145,PDE
1983,02,12,084712.74, 5.669, 126.297,6.1, 51,PDE
1983,03,15,195830.45, 5.346, 126.566,6.7, 41,PDE
1983,07,14,194746.53, 5.557, 126.452,6.0, 43,PDE
1984,11,20,081516.23, 5.167, 125.124,6.4,202,PDE
1985,06,04,035627.06, 4.873, 127.481,6.0, 94,PDE
1985,12,14,064611.78, 3.683, 126.600,6.1, 22,PDE
1986,06,17,181311.55, 5.644, 125.259,6.4, 31,PDE
1986,07,09,231053.10, 1.904, 126.525,6.5, 27,PDE
1986,08,14,193913.67, 1.795, 126.519,7.4, 33,PDE
1986,08,17,152741.26, 2.276, 126.959,6.3, 30,PDE
1986,08,17,153119.08, 2.161, 127.113,6.3, 33,PDE
1987,05,11,095934.12, 4.470, 127.709,6.3, 94,PDE
1987,05,12,013025.03, 7.090, 126.701,6.5, 24,PDE
1987,10,29,202341 , 4.817, 127.688,6.1,152,PDE
1987,11,07,162355.90, 5.634, 126.614,6.2, 80,PDE
1989,02,10,111524.68, 2.305, 126.760,6.8, 44,PDE
1989,02,27,233910.82, 2.301, 128.009,6.2, 53,PDE
1991,11,21,123828.57, 5.782, 126.832,6.0, 73,PDE
1992,03,24,224706.68, 3.613, 127.008,6.0, 53,PDE
1992,08,09,194944.13, 4.005, 126.360,6.1, 73,PDE
1993,04,19,210148.94, 4.014, 128.203,6.8, 23,PDE
1993,06,04,104933.65, 3.734, 128.496,6.0, 20,PDE
1994,02,20,015435.76, 2.059, 126.475,6.0, 28,PDE
1995,01,21,073022.95, 2.563, 126.882,6.2, 42,PDE
1995,02,19,001745.19, 5.244, 126.265,6.0, 75,PDE
1995,04,20,084511.67, 6.279, 126.777,6.6, 94,PDE
1995,07,26,234202.78, 2.534, 127.681,6.4, 65,PDE
1995,11,13,021751.08, 3.588, 126.647,6.3, 33,PDE
1996,02,28,094410.92, 1.756, 126.048,6.4,115,PDE
1996,10,17,161525.75, 5.704, 125.945,6.0,116,PDE
1997,09,17,145035.34, 2.109, 126.597,6.0, 33,PDE
1998,09,02,083729.91, 5.410, 126.764,6.8, 50,PDE
1998,09,28,192323.25, 3.840, 126.407,6.2, 30,PDE
1999,06,18,105525.75, 5.514, 126.639,6.4, 33,PDE
2000,04,03,152001.98, 4.081, 125.610,6.2,150,PDE
2000,06,14,170048.40, 4.542, 127.722,6.3, 89,PDE
2000,10,05,200614.02, 6.853, 126.822,6.1, 87,PDE
2001,01,01,065704.17, 6.898, 126.579,7.5, 33,PDE
2001,01,01,085431.58, 6.631, 126.899,6.8, 33,PDE
2001,01,02,073003.78, 6.749, 126.809,6.4, 33,PDE
2002,01,01,112922.73, 6.303, 125.650,6.3,138,PDE
2002,03,05,211609.13, 6.033, 124.249,7.5, 31,PDE
2002,03,08,182753.19, 5.871, 124.274,6.0, 23,PDE
2003,05,05,230445.67, 3.715, 127.954,6.2, 56,PDE
2005,02,15,144225.85, 4.756, 126.421,6.5, 39,PDE
2006,03,31,211445.20, 3.798, 126.344,6.2, 37,PDE
2006,10,24,030345.28, 4.898, 125.295,6.1, 10,PDE
2006,11,29,013217.92, 2.520, 128.283,6.2, 39,PDE
2006,12,12,154803.27, 3.733, 124.684,6.3,213,PDE
2007,02,12,124531.70, 5.561, 126.073,6.1, 24,PDE
2007,07,26,054016.10, 2.872, 127.464,6.9, 25,PDE
2007,08,20,134617.41, 6.134, 127.381,6.4, 8,PDE
2007,09,13,094845.13, 3.801, 126.342,6.3, 26,PDE
2008,01,20,202604.88, 2.346, 126.816,6.1, 35,PDE
2008,03,20,141040.40, 6.192, 126.934,6.1, 45,PDE
2008,09,11,000002.70, 1.885, 127.363,6.6, 96,PDE
2008,12,25,032029.35, 5.752, 125.377,6.3,206,PDE
2009,02,11,173450.49, 3.886, 126.387,7.2, 20,PDE
2009,02,11,182511.24, 4.026, 126.783,6.0, 35,PDE
2009,02,12,034939.66, 3.947, 126.411,6.0, 26,PDE
2009,02,12,083017.26, 3.972, 126.724,6.0, 35,PDE
2009,02,12,131506.28, 4.035, 126.548,6.3, 27,PDE
2009,02,22,174522.40, 3.679, 126.561,6.0, 32,PDE
2009,03,16,141556.46, 3.807, 126.552,6.3, 35,PDE
2009,04,04,053155.48, 5.149, 127.201,6.3, 48,PDE
2009,04,19,052325.88, 4.136, 126.678,6.1, 25,PDE
2009,06,14,055843.27, 5.361, 126.438,6.1, 35,PDE
2009,10,13,113805.31, 2.930, 128.231,6.0, 32,PDE
2009,11,28,181020.63, 5.326, 126.288,6.1, 38,PDE
2010,07,21,091604.42, 3.039, 128.222,6.1,100,PDE
2010,10,08,054308.07, 2.831, 128.216,6.2,120,PDE
2011,06,13,143122.99, 2.515, 126.457,6.3, 61,PDE-W
2012,08,26,150537.08, 2.190, 126.837,6.6, 91,PDE-W

The largest of these (to save you trying to find them in the list) are (largest first)

Year,Month,Day,Time(hhmmss.mm)UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth,Catalog
2001,1,1,65704.17,6.898,126.579,7.5,33,PDE
2002,3,5,211609.13,6.033,124.249,7.5,31,PDE
1986,8,14,193913.67,1.795,126.519,7.4,33,PDE
1979,4,10,14222,2.963,126.933,7.2,37,PDE
2009,2,11,173450.49,3.886,126.387,7.2,20,PDE
1975,7,10,182916,6.507,126.642,7,86,PDE
1980,1,2,205844.2,5.984,126.188,6.9,63,PDE
2007,7,26,54016.1,2.872,127.464,6.9,25,PDE
1989,2,10,111524.68,2.305,126.76,6.8,44,PDE
1993,4,19,210148.94,4.014,128.203,6.8,23,PDE
1998,9,2,83729.91,5.41,126.764,6.8,50,PDE
2001,1,1,85431.58,6.631,126.899,6.8,33,PDE
1983,3,15,195830.45,5.346,126.566,6.7,41,PDE
1995,4,20,84511.67,6.279,126.777,6.6,94,PDE
2008,9,11,2.7,1.885,127.363,6.6,96,PDE
2012,8,26,150537.08,2.19,126.837,6.6,91,PDE-W
1973,3,18,110614.7,2.033,126.58,6.5,33,PDE
1976,6,26,103059.4,3.665,126.75,6.5,33,PDE
1986,7,9,231053.1,1.904,126.525,6.5,27,PDE
1987,5,12,13025.03,7.09,126.701,6.5,24,PDE
2005,2,15,144225.85,4.756,126.421,6.5,39,PDE

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120 Responses to Major Earthquake Predicted for Philippines and Indonesia

  1. liquiddruid says:

    Too many God references in this comments section. You’d think they were commenting on a religious blog.

  2. len says:

    I feel bad for those who do not believe in God. If you read the bible and attend church and understand what the bible says, u will never get scared of these things because if u understand bible, u know that these calamities will happen eventually…no one can stop the word of GOD. The only thing we can do is pray hard and ask for forgiveness and ask to have pity on all of us….God is the only one who can save us all and who can stop all these…imbes na mag away away kayo sa religion or sa mga nangyayari bakit hjndi nalang kilalanin nyo ang salita ng Diyos at isabuhay nyo. Nakatala na mangyayari ang lahat ng ito sa bibliya at dapat lahat tayo ay maging handa at ang maging handa ibig sabihin ay uumpisahan na nating I bigay ang sarilI natin sa Diyos at kilalanin sya at ikalat at ipamalita ang salita nya sa buong Mundo. At ipagdasal natin that God will spare us esp Philippines and lahat ng kababayan for these upcoming earthquake…

  3. alias Grandmother Earth says:

    I pity who comments without thinking what they are saying may utak nga d naman ginamit lets all pray if it does have to happen God will spare the deserving ones………

  4. white says:

    The quake is expected to produce a M8.0+ event with possible tsunami. The time frame for this quake to strike is from now until December 2014 ….hope u get it

  5. white says:

    hey guys it was said anytime from the day they discover up to december 2014,,,there was no specific time indicated but it will happen anytime from 2013 to 2014…

  6. juan says:

    i see that a lot of dumb, idiot filipinos are posting here. good job!

  7. Reblogged this on Judge me not and commented:
    This is something urgent. Spare time to read this and add prayers.

  8. NIC REPUNTE says:

    NO ONE IN THIS EARTH CAN STOP THE POWER OF NATURE, EARTHQUAKE IS IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT BECAUSE IT’S NOT VISIBLE IT IS NOT WITHIN THE POWER OF MAN MADE SATELLITE PREDICTION WILL HAPPEN WITH A SPECIFIC POINT IN ANY PLACE ON EARTH, THE BEST WAY PEOPLE ON THIS EARTH ASK THE ALMIGHTY THAT A KILLER QUAKE WILL NO LONGER APPEAR TO HAPPEN IN THIS WORLD ,,,,PRAYER IS THE ONLY WEAPON TO ALL HUMAN BEING TO DO.

  9. maria lyn plaza says:

    Don’t believe of what other’s saying… jan 7, 2013 was finish already. Keep always praying to Our Lord…. ♡♡ ♡ at tc po tovall of us♡

  10. wetwew says:

    kalokohan , Ano diyos yan at kaya i predict mangyayari |? sa Dios lang ako naniniwala , but of course mas maayos if lageng handa so take care everyone

    • PuterMan says:

      You may consider it bullshit but someone somewhere has to be the first to have a system that works. Why not these people. Give it a chance and see that happens, but yes as you say – take care everyone.

      By the way, enjoy Bonifacio Day

    • wala nang propeta sa panahun ngayon ang paniwalaan nyo kung ano ang nakasulat sa bibliya. totoo magkakagyera bansa laban sa bansa, pagyayanig sa mundo, bagyo gutom, pighati yan ang nararamdaman natin.

      • PuterMan says:

        If at all possible could you give a translation? I gather this is something to do with Prophets and the Bible but Google translate makes a poor job of it. No problem with you posting in Filipino, I just don’t understand it!

  11. krazel castillo says:

    just pray and forgive us , god love us

  12. jhuan says:

    hali kayo dito sa bohol may aftershocks pa it’s more fun in bohol

  13. Old_Fashioned says:

    All I can say is, I am glad that there are those who are trying to scientifically predict seismic activity. Not too long ago, the weather was something of a mystery to us, and weather forecasting was something of a hit-or-miss endeavor. Look at the accuracy of weather forecasting now.

    Who knows? Maybe one day we may be able to predict earthquakes with the same degree of accuracy. It remains to be seen if the IEVPC’s techniques are accurate. Since I live in the Philippines, I just hope that the next one won’t be very destructive. I say next one because this is, after all, an earthquake prone area.

  14. Carmen Pilar says:

    Only GOD can stop all these predictions because He is the Supreme Being. Yes, He is a Loving & Living God. He created us. He is the author of our life.. He can make miracles even in unexpected way.
    However, He wants us to repent. Let us not wait for catastrophes to befall our eyes.. NO TIME FOR DELAY. If we can spend time watching videos; checking our mails, do chatting, go malling- why can’t we spend time to pray? A Day of Prayer is a Day of Salvation..

    • The one who turns you upside down says:

      So you are saying that god is a punishing god because it sounds like you are saying he wants us to repaint and because we are not repainting he creates this calamities just for us to repaint so my question is where is the free of will …. AS MY ADVICE PLEASE LEAVE GOD AWAY FROM THIS BECAUSE YOU ARE MAKING OUR LORD GOD LOOK LIKE A PUNISHING GOD

    • noreligionnowar says:

      hindi totoong meron god..gawa gawa lang ng tao ang simbolo na merong diyos..para sa kanilang sariling benepisyo….100%

  15. Fernando.anluagui@gmail.com says:

    I enjoin MMDA chair Francis Tolentino to implement a massive earthquake disaster and rescue response drill for Metro Manila for a theoretical 6.5 magnitude earthquake that will hit Metro Manila on 8th and 14th January, 2014. The 8th Jan. 2014 earthquake might be a prelude to a bigger one in 14th Jan.’ 2014. As I say, this is a theoretical scenario but if we do not prepare on time all of us mght be victims f the big ones really occur sometime in the future. The idea is we need to be prepared. Yes it is true, the Almighty God the Father knows how disasters had visited our benighted land and with sincere prayers may this theoretical earthquake will not bear fruitation.

  16. jvoss1225 says:

    I am curious and would like to know, are there volcanoes (active or not) in that region? I have recently read about an astronomer, Mr. Ferrara, who by his mathematical genius, predicted the earthquake in Chile. In his prediction though, he said it would occur at 7+ PM, but the actual quake was at 11:30PM. The day was accurate though. Now, he said there will be 3 major quakes worldwide. One, in the Borneo-Sumatra-java spot. Two: Northern Mediterranean coast (bet. France and Spain) and Three: Southern Pacific coast (N.Valparaiso…) Of course these are not the only quakes and events he has predicted, and people who know this man would say to take heed. I asked about volcanoes because Mr. Ferrara said that the 3 earthquakes will be volcanic and not tectonic. If you also would be aware that these days, a lot of volcanoes are active: Indonesia, Russia and the Yellowstone supervolcano. I am just guessing as I search, for the one between France and Spain, would Mt. Etna count? I still need to search… the only thing to do if these are true, would be to pray hard. Am also excited about planet-comet Ison, as today it will be most visible.

  17. Lyra says:

    Thank you for the information people should be warned and take things seriously and always get ready, I’m from Tacloban (Philippines also a survivor), it has been 3weeks since me and my family evacuated here in Cebu and we are planning to head back to Tacloban tomorrow or the next day. In my opinion (just an opinion) everybody should be cautious every now and then especially with the climate change going on, whether the predictions(well scientific) is true or not because we just don’t know what the future might bring, it’s so sad with whats happening with the world right now. (I just want to share) What I did and still do is believe and have great faith in GOD, he was my strength during the event I remember I was calling His Name but no words came out I just kept on calling Lord Lord Lord and I know he gave me strength to overcome my fear. I’m still frantic about the event,and for the people who has lost their lives and I hope their in Gods keeping.

  18. Andi says:

    This file was created jan 11, 2013. Maybe they meant the M9.2 last month in bohol.

  19. Unanymous says:

    lolz, can’t you figure out what impact can give in having panic? don’t you consider time wasted just to prepare for false alarms? aren’t you concerned of how people feels on always thinking they will be gone anytime? This is not typhoon that can have warnings, only toads can predict earthquakes and some other animals with their behaviours, but it’s a short period of time (gap) before it happens.

    Of course, it’s better to be prepared in all times, but not like this way, putting people at risk. If God will take our lives, then he will take it, prepared or unprepared…

  20. deedee says:

    is it possible to hit the metro manila by the said tsunami?what was the possible ways to do?

  21. We will just pray for Gods grace guys,that this will not happen.Our God is a loving God

    • Wolf J says:

      Mother Nature. The earth is transforming which is Physics and Geology and what science. It never stops from moving and will keep on transforming the structure of the earth. You can pray for your safety but still disasters is happening around the world. This earthquake may or may not happen as predicted but it may happen earlier or later on. Still this earth transformation has to happen one way or another or it will cause much larger in the future. To avoid this is to move on the higher grounds. This needs money and resources and Asian places which will be affected don’t have much of this. So praying and hoping that it will be delayed or it will never really happen is the cheapest and the easiest way to do. This may cause more death and devastation because of faith that does not require action to avoid it. If you believe in God then, He also said “Do your best and God will do the rest”. Means you are warned and you must do your best to avoid it and then God will do the rest. If your best is to pray instead of moving away from the disaster area, then that is your perogative. If in anyway one day the disaster strikes and millions will die, what will you say to God? I prayed but you did not listen? God gave us intelligence to use it and now we have it. We have been using it to predict and now the warning is up the board. What do we do?

  22. Christian Peter S. Belardo says:

    Predicting an earthquake is as unpredictable as my behavior after half a bottle of single-malt whiskey. Gimme a break, doomsayers!

  23. Badong says:

    With that kind of earthquake (M8.0+) in the said region, would that affect or make a chain reaction with the other fault lines in other regions like in marikina? thanks in advance……

    • PuterMan says:

      Whilst it is a known fact that major earthquakes can affect faults within around a 600km radius I am not aware that a major earthquake has ever triggered another major earthquake. Normally any such triggering is of a much lesser magnitude.

    • sleuth27 says:

      the fault lines is not just in Marikina, it affects quezon city, traversing to neighboring cities like pasig city, Makati, part of mandaluyong, manila up to part of bacoor. road and brgy affected by the fault line called west valley fault (formerly Marikina valley fault) in Marikina are barangka and IVC. pasig has wider roads affected.

  24. raul says:

    Maybe you predict that earthquake, because you have already plan to make that earthquake, or maybe this coming earthquake you said is a man made earthquake.

    • PuterMan says:

      Despite popular opinion on the subject the only ‘man-made’ earthquakes are those caused by high pressure injection wells and the highest recorded magnitude for that source is ~Mag 5.

    • yes, maybe it’s true coz the HAARP ..pls research to gakona, alaska…

      • PuterMan says:

        Maybe you need to get up to date? Gakona has been closed down for months. The generators did not meet emissions standards and the leasee did not renew in view of the cost of upgrading. I am not aware at this time that it has been re-opened.

  25. Yhukie says:

    Hey people, you must be thankful that they gave you warning and told you to prepare. That is very good, there will be no loss if you prepare. You can even save your love ones.

    Yhukiebaby :*

  26. lolojuan says:

    i dont believe this, where are these predictions when bohol city philippines was hit by a 7.2 magnitude earthquake last october 2013. it really dont make sense.

    • PuterMan says:

      You could say that about any of the major quakes this year, but IEVPC appear to concentrate on the prediction of Great Earthquakes which is thos of magnitude 8 and above. I am sure that once their system is fine tuned they could bring it down to Major earthquakes – thos in the mag 7 to 7.9 range.

      Because this is a scientific process and not a prophetic process it make perfect sense to me that they approach the subject cautiously.

    • Mira I says:

      This prediction was released january 2013, so i think the earthquake was hit in Bohol is included, because its says until December 2014.

    • boyerz says:

      there are 2 types of earthquakes. Tectonic and Volcanic Earthquakes. since the volcano erupt in Indonesia it’s easy to predict and to prepare for the warnings. Tectonic (which was our earthquake last October 15) It’s not predicated since the plate was already down and the other plate went back up which cause the earthquake. Hopefully Tectonic Earthquakes will be predicted very soon c:

    • Wolf J says:

      I suggest you read more about the facts of earthquakes. Google it then you will learn about science and calculated predictions and the one comes like a burglar at night. At least there are pople who are trying to study these things.

  27. Arnel says:

    Thanks for posting this very important information. We must prepare ourselves for this prediction so that when it happens, there will be no major damages.God Bless the World!!!

  28. Cannel says:

    Predictions may happen and may not happen. All we got to do is to be prepared all the time. Just keep praying everyone!

  29. Carmel says:

    At least , we all be greatful that there were predictions like this so everybody is aware and can prepare.Although nobody can stop it. God is good all the time.he is not the one who made all this. Calamities and disasters.the world is getting older, and been too much touched and abused. God made the earth so for us to stay and live and die when really it’s our time to go. Thank u friend for the effort .

  30. All we have to do is to prepare and pray…

  31. Jeng says:

    Now The prediction came true, the Philippines was hit by earthquake and damaged the area of Bohol and Cebu.

    • PuterMan says:

      I would agree with you but for the fact that IEVPC have not removed the alert – it is still active – which suggests that they do not consider the Bohol 7.1 to be the event predicted.

    • Njarde@yahoo.com says:

      Earthquakes at the moment cannot be predicted. If you type in google and search or if you read books , you will see so many predictions. Some of them came true some of them not. Major earthquake is a possibility because of the movements of the Earth. I can say between 2013-2020 there will be strong earthquake in the phil and if it happens, people will come back to me ask me to predict another coming but if not, they won’t even bother talking to me.

  32. Star says:

    Lol. Stop an earthquake!!!???? Now that’s ….. Never mind no comment. As my mother said if you have nothing good to say. Better keep my mouth shut! Lol.

    Let’s all be better prepared this time and not be headless chickens when an earthquake ever happens again.

  33. gen says:

    i am not very familiar with IVEPC… how many earthquake predictions they had that come to pass? how good are they in their predictions?

    • PuterMan says:

      They state “Certainly the early signals detected for the volcanic eruptions in Kamchatka in January and the large M6.9 Hokkaido earthquake on February 2, 2013, show that we can provide early warning allowing people to make necessary preparations for such potential catastrophes.”

      I concur with that assessment. They did indeed predict those two events.

      This is a new system so it is probably too early to say how accurate they are but so far they seem to score 100%. This Philippines alert is only at stage 3. There are 10 possible stages. During the testing stage at least 1 alert was cancelled that I am aware of.

  34. gen says:

    the predicted area of the earthquake is directly below general santos/davao city…

  35. dennis says:

    why???? just predict ….. why not find a way to stop it….there always be something ….if is reason just to alarm… its no good use…. look what happen to my country…….. mostly poor people died…for your prediction cannot help to save lives to those poor people… only good to the rich.

    • PuterMan says:

      Dennis I do appreciate that, as always, it is the poor that die or lose everything in these events.

      It is not ‘My’ prediction by the way.

      As far as stopping earthquakes goes that is never going to be possible. It may however be possible to develop systems in the future to warn everyone, poor and rich, of an impending quake in a time scale that is not so far ahead as to be unreasonable.

      If this were possible it could save the lives of the poor. We should never give up hope that this may one day be achieved.

      • Badong says:

        Mr. PuterMan, whats your connection with IEVPC? If you don’t mind me asking?

        • PuterMan says:

          I have no connection to IEVPC at all. I am a computer programmer based in Ireland who has a strong interest in earthquakes and seismicity.

          • May says:

            PuterMan, I do appreciate all your efforts and I feel that you are very knowledgeable in this matter.
            I am from Bohol Philippines and I just have some questions Sir. A couple of hours ago, our island was rocked again with strong and moderate aftershocks.. There might be over 4,000 aftershocks now since October 15, 2013.
            Do you have any idea as to why we are still having these “unlimited” aftershocks?
            Philvolcs said that aftershocks were supposedly can be felt 2-3 weeks from the main shock but it’s more than a month now… They said this is not normal anymore… Any idea please…

            And that “predicted” major earthquake between Philippines and Indonesia, will it reach or hit Bohol island again? No one could imagine how afraid I was THAT day – not for myself but for my 2 year old daughter.
            Thank you very much.

            • PuterMan says:

              I am not sure why Phivolcs would say that. Aftershocks from a Mag 7 could last months, and from the Great Tohoku quake years. It is all dependent on the nature of the fault that has ruptured and where the stress has been transferred. I don’t think you can state categorically that they will last 2 to three weeks.

              It is also the case that they do not necessarily decrease in magnitude over time. They do decrease in frequency and often in magnitude, but not always. Generally however for major quakes, as the Bohol quake, aftershocks follow Baths Law which says that the aftershock will be at most 1 magnitude less than the main shock. This is not the case for great quakes however where statistically is is 2 magnitudes lower.

              As far as the predicted quake goes the very occurrence of the Bohol quake lessens the chance of the predicted quake occurring in the area that could affect Bohol. Stress will have been transferred away from the fault that ruptured to other areas.

              Please bear in mind however that whilst I have a great interest in this subject I am NOT a geologist by trade so whatever I say is purely my opinion and should not be taken as fact. I did study geology at College, but that was a long time ago when subduction was hardly even a new theory let alone generally accepted.

              I fervently hope that your country is spared this event. It is possible it may be as historically that area of prediction has NOT had a mag 8 quake as I indicated in the lists.

            • jvoss1225 says:

              True enough, the normal was 2-3 weeks of aftershocks. But what we felt that day on Oct 15th was a 7.2 quake, and it has been said it might take 3 months for the aftershocks to finally subside. :( We cannot do anything about it. But after that quake, I prepared my backpack filled with emergency survival good for a week. Then had to research a lot and that’s how I got to this site. Am thinking of getting at least a 30-liter backpack and increasing the food supply. I wish I can get the 60-L but with my small Filipino frame, I’m sure I cannot carry it for a couple hours. A backpack is best, to have my 2 hands free to hold my 2 kids. Do squatting exercises and wall push ups, to strengthen muscles for carrying the backpack and for walking. And of course, for me, it is also important to prepare spiritually … (in your own way).

    • boyerz says:

      “stop an earthquake” lol best comment of my life XDDDD unless you can surpass God you may stop one ehueheuheue

    • Volvo says:

      Way to stop catastrophes?! Hey, call those Asgardian to come there :p

    • Earthquakes and typhoons do not choose and pick whose lives are lost. Many big and tall houses did not meet a certain building code and “rich” people lost their lives. A lot of old wooden buildings you can see remain standing and concrete buildings with 2 stories and posts that are to wide apart are prone to collapsing. In an emergency, everyone has the same risk. A lot of people loose their livelihood as well.

      • PuterMan says:

        It is true that nature does not pick and choose, but it is generally the case that the “rich” will proportionately fare better than the “poor”. It is also far more likely that the “poor” will lose their livelihood.

        Unfortunately governments around the world do not pander to the poor but to the rich and thus those less well off will always get the worse end of the deal.

    • Wolf J says:

      This is the most shallow comment I have read here. Yolanda was predicted but what can any government can really do? Mobilise 12 million people in 48 hours, and to where and what logistics? The disaster in Visayas has no solution. Even if it hit the riches country or government in the world. No one can not stop the devastation it will cause. This prediction may or may not happen. But if it does, what now?

  36. marlo says:

    no comment 4 dat … its better 2 prepare than never….

  37. God's lesson says:

    What a man believes and have faith to happened this to his life will surely happened, because of faith and desire… what you desire is what you wish will come true… God is good, he will give all your wish and desires.. just to let you satisfied and happy as you think. You have freedom to choose, heaven or hell..

    • Greg Norman says:

      what is the basis of this theology? this does not sound correct.

      • PuterMan says:

        I would say you are correct. I don’t believe that God’s message says that one will get what one wishes for. That sounds like a sup to suck people in. If I wish for £10 million will I get it? No, If I wish my neighbour dead so I can covet his wife will it happen? No. The statement by @God’s lesson seems to be a perversion of the real message which is actually quite the opposite of the comfortable state of affairs portrayed. A bit off topic but worth pointing out. Thanks.

    • Wolf J says:

      volcano? God? man? death?

  38. Agnostic Orwellian says:

    Fuckin troll blog again. Can you please die now? You’re preying on the minds of the ill-informed people.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earthquake_prediction#Difficulty_or_impossibility

    and don’t use the “just-because-its-in-wikipedia-it-doesn’t-mean-that-its-a-fact; anyone-can-edit-wikipedia” argument.

    Go fuck yourself OP.

    • PuterMan says:

      I am not preying on the minds of anyone. I am reporting the data from the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center, without comment. The IEVPC has had a modicum of success in earthquake predictions so (1) don’t shoot the messenger and (2) what you suggest is actually physically impossible.

      Perhaps before resorting to crude language and glib comments you should go away and do some research. Your comment and your attitude are indicative of a considerable lack of intelligent thought.

  39. ireth says:

    haha! very funny… too bad that no nation ever hired them for their so called “expertise”. apparently, still no earthquake forecast on the news…

    • PuterMan says:

      As to whether they have been hired by anyone I would not know but perhaps you should be aware that these people are scientists NOT prophets of doom. They have PhDs and are genuine in their attempts to predict.

      By the way “The time frame for this quake to strike is from now until December 2014 ” is quite possibly why there is nothing in the news?

      • Rosanna Sanchez says:

        Hi… do you mean to say that there’s another earthquake coming aside from that of Bohol which is mag. 7.2? Do you have any idea in which place this gonna happen?

        • PuterMan says:

          They are predicting a Magnitude 8+ and as I understand it yes in addition to the Bohol earthquake. The location of the expected quake is given in the PDF file of the alert and on the map I have included at the top of the post. The time frame given is between now and December 2014..

  40. Maria_Ami says:

    Sir,

    I’d like to know, if this quake happened? it will create a tsunami.. how high is the water can surge up to, and how far the water can travel inland? Thank you!

    • PuterMan says:

      Thank you for your question. I am not able to answer authoritatively myself on that subject however I will pass your question on to Dr Choi and get back to you.

    • PuterMan says:

      Dr Choi has responded:

      The signals coming from the region are getting stronger. IEVPC has short-term prediction tools to apply for the region. We should be able to provide an accurate prediction in the near future.,/blockquote>
      You may rest assured Maria_Ami that I shall respond as soon as I hear anything. My apologies for not being able to give you more definite information at this time.

  41. Rho Mee Lou says:

    Predictions supported by data can be logical, but the degree of precision this time is unclear.

  42. James says:

    Just today…near this area…so I think they have some basis…I wish I could see they’re data.

    http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/nation/regions/10/22/13/magnitude-51-quake-strikes-davao-del-sur

  43. Randy Cadman says:

    neural networks can predict anything

  44. lowla says:

    These predictions are based on science. Poor are the people who don’t believe in them and suffer the consequences when the disaster occurs to them unprepared. Best is to take precaution especially to the affected regions.

  45. alipunga@yahoo.com says:

    fear not the earthquake. FEAR GOD who made the earthquake.

    • PuterMan says:

      How do you know He made the earthquakes? It could be the work of the other mob.

    • simply means your god comes from beneath the earth. I do not fear such a god who made earthquakes. i fear a God who send souls to hell.

      • Frank Staples says:

        Jesus says: “I am the light of the world: he that followeth me shall not walk in darkness, but shall have the light of life” (John 8:12).

      • Wolf J says:

        God does not send souls to hell. We enter it by our own accord. He just saying those who wants to go to Heaven may do so. But certain rules we have to follow. It is our pride and greed of power is hindering us. But of course volcanoes got nothing to do with spiritual, or are they?

  46. educated says:

    Hoax! We can never predict an earthquake. Dont believe with this sht,.

    • PuterMan says:

      Whilst it is very true to say that we cannot predict an earthquake to the date and time and place precisely, it is possible to consider that a particular region is likely to have a larger event within a loose time period, but that is about as good as it get so far.

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